Daily Market Mindset

ZMI RESEARCH | PRE-MARKET EDITION

Thursday, October 29, 2026 · Price and news cutoff: 8:15 a.m. Eastern

This edition looks back at the market as of 8:15 a.m. Eastern. It was prepared after the open and excludes later prices and the 8:30 a.m. release results.

ES Loses Nearby Support, Leaving Recovery Attempts With More to Prove

LEAN: Bearish, with caution. Lost overnight support leaves ES with ground to recover, while the economic releases could change the picture. We expect an unsettled start; avoid assuming the first rebound has repaired the damage or chasing weakness into an already-tested low.

What’s Shaping Today’s Market

Last night’s plan identified 7,757–7,760 as an area where support could develop. Instead, ES traded down to 7,740 and was at 7,748.25 by our cutoff, below Wednesday’s 7,751.50 low. The overnight high of 7,773.75 gives us the upper boundary of a recovery that did not retain its progress.

Technology earnings add to the uncertainty. Weaker U.S. futures alongside Alphabet’s decline and renewed concerns about AI spending suggest a recovery may have more to prove. Yesterday’s Fed pause is also part of the backdrop, with growth and inflation still important to the outlook. These developments provide context; they do not establish what caused a particular turn in ES.

The next catalyst at the cutoff was the 8:30 a.m. Eastern cluster of GDP, personal income and spending, and PCE inflation, alongside weekly jobless claims. The combination matters because stronger growth and firmer inflation would present a different picture from weakening demand and easing price pressures. The results are outside this snapshot.

Taken together, the lost support and earnings uncertainty leave us cautious about treating a rebound as a repaired market. The economic releases could change that assessment. Our focus is whether ES begins to retain ground as it works back through the overnight damage.

KEY MARKET LEVELS

Key levels: 7,794.25 · 7,784.50 · 7,773.75 · 7,772.75 · 7,751.50 · 7,740.00 · 7,712.50
Watch area: 7,757–7,760

Market Mindset

We remain cautiously bearish, but expect the session may begin as a period of level testing rather than a clean continuation lower. The central tension is between 7,740 below and the lost 7,757–7,760 recovery area above. Technology weakness and the economic releases may keep the session unsettled, with price moving between those areas while the market reassesses the outlook.

Repeated movement within that range without retained progress would support the price-discovery thesis. Sustained trade below 7,740 would suggest acceptance of lower prices and bring 7,712.50 into focus. Recovery and sustained trade above 7,757–7,760 would show repair of the overnight damage and weaken the bearish view. The important distinction is whether ES keeps the ground it gains; movement alone would not resolve the tension.

TRADER’S PLAYBOOK FOR TODAY

Failed recovery

Watch 7,751.50 and 7,757–7,760. Wait for a recovery to stall, fall back below the tested area and fail to regain it. That could create a potential short-side setup toward 7,740. A reclaimed area that holds on a later pullback would challenge the setup.

Support or reclaim at 7,740

Wait for retained support. A hold, or a brief break followed by a reclaim, needs to survive another pullback before considering a rebound response toward 7,751.50, then 7,757–7,760. Falling back below 7,740 without recovery would invalidate that idea.

Acceptance outside the discovery range

Below 7,740: sustained trade below the level and a failed attempt to recover it would put 7,712.50 in focus; a reclaim that holds would challenge continuation lower. Above 7,757–7,760: sustained trade above the area and a supported retest would bring 7,772.75–7,773.75 into play, then 7,784.50 and 7,794.25 if progress continues. A failed retest would leave that continuation setup unconfirmed.

Stand aside

Wait while price remains unresolved. Repeated crossings of the same area without retained progress, or an initial data reaction without a supported retest or failed recovery, would leave no clear response to favor.

Educational notice: ZMI Research provides market commentary for educational and informational purposes only. Our discussion of $ES price levels and scenarios reflects how we evaluate market structure; it is not personalized financial advice or a recommendation to enter, exit, or hold any trade. Futures trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for everyone. If you choose to trade, be patient, trade only with risk capital, use appropriate position sizing, and define your risk before entry. Stop-loss orders may not limit losses to the intended amount under all market conditions.

Events That Could Change the Tone

Today